New Home Sales Reinforce Last Month's Rebound
Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:53:00 GMT
New home sales lost almost no ground in September, effectively reinforcing the healthy rebound seen in August's report.  The Census Bureau's New Residential Construction report clocked sales at an annual pace of 676k, down only 0.6% month over month. As seen in the chart below, the broader trend has been sideways for nearly 3 years now. The number of new houses for sale slipped to 476,000 , down 1.0% from August and 2.3% from a year earlier. With inventory edging lower alongside sales, the implied supply eased to 8.4 months , compared with 8.5 months in August and 8.2 months last September. Prices rebounded from August's decline. The median sales price rose to $400,400 , up 3.9% for the month but still 3.9% below September 2025. The average sales price increased 0.4% to $472,800 , leaving it 6.7% below its year-ago level. As a reminder, these figures are broadly based and don't factor in location, lot size, and other key pricing components Sales (MoM): -0.6% Sales (YoY): -5.3% Inventory (MoM): -1.0% Inventory (YoY): -2.3% Months' Supply: 8.4 (down from 8.5 prior month; 8.2 YoY) Median Price: $400,400 Average Price: $472,800

Home Price Appreciation Edges Higher in August
Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:49:00 GMT
Home price appreciation picked up again in August (as reported this week), but the improvement was minimal.  The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% from July to August, bringing annual appreciation to 2.4% . July's previously reported monthly gain was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2%. Regional results remained uneven, with annual appreciation ranging from 0.5% in the Mountain division to 4.4% in the East North Central division. Case-Shiller's national index rose 2.1% year over year, up from 1.9% in July. The 10-City Composite gained 3.6% , while the 20-City Composite rose 2.7% . Even with the recent improvement, the inflation-adjusted trend remains negative. Consumer prices rose 3.4% annually in August, well above the 2.1% increase in national home prices. That gap has persisted for more than a year, offering some relief on a relative affordability basis even as elevated home prices and mortgage rates continue to challenge buyers. Case-Shiller's metro-level results continued to show a sharp divide between markets. Chicago led the 20 tracked cities for the sixth consecutive month , with prices up 6.7% year over year. New York followed at 6.2%, and Cleveland gained 4.3%. Seattle remained at the other end of the spectrum, with prices down 2.0% annually, followed by Las Vegas at -1.3% and Denver at -0.8%. FHFA House Price Index

Mortgage Demand Bounces Back, Sort Of
Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:33:00 GMT
Mortgage applications finally rebounded as mortgage rates fell for a second straight week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.4% increase in total application volume for the week ending October 23. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 7.37% from 7.41%, its lowest level in three weeks. Both purchase and refinance applications moved higher, but just barely, and well below levels from last year. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 4% for the week, and still 18% below year-ago levels . Refinances increased 3%, offering only a modest rebound from a market still 61% below its level a year earlier. “The decline in rates gave borrowers some relief, with applications rebounding slightly, particularly conventional applications,” said MBA's Joel Kan. He noted that mortgage rates remain more than a percentage point above year-ago levels, while most homeowners have little incentive to refinance. Adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 11.3% of applications , the highest share in more than a year, as borrowers sought lower monthly payments. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.37% (from 7.41%) | Points: 0.76 (from 0.75) 15yr Fixed: 6.70% (from 6.73%) | Points: 0.85 (from 0.73) Jumbo 30yr: 7.28% (from 7.33%) | Points: 0.64 (from 0.60) FHA: 7.12% (from 7.13%) | Points: 1.07 (from 1.15) 5/1 ARM: 6.41% (from 6.46%) | Points: 1.20 (from 1.11)

Mortgage Applications Aren't Ready to Rebound Just Yet
Fri, 23 Oct 2026 18:56:00 GMT
Mortgage applications continued to decline even as mortgage rates finally moved lower. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 5.3% drop in total application volume for the week ending October 16, despite the first weekly decline in mortgage rates in more than two months. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.41% from 7.50% the previous week. That improvement wasn't enough to revive demand, with both purchase and refinance applications moving lower. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 7% for the week and was 18% below year-ago levels . Refinances fared somewhat better, declining 2%, though activity remained 59% lower than a year earlier. “Purchase applications fell 18 percent behind last year's pace, as higher rates are pricing buyers out of the market,” said MBA's Joel Kan, who also noted that adjustable-rate mortgages remain an option for qualified borrowers looking for lower rates. ARMs held steady at 10.5% of applications , with rates nearly a full percentage point below the 30-year fixed average. The refinance share of total applications increased to 39.0% from 37.7% the previous week. That shift came despite the decline in refinance volume, reflecting the steeper drop in purchase applications. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.41% (from 7.50%) | Points: 0.75 (from 0.83) 15yr Fixed: 6.73% (from 6.87%) | Points: 0.73 (from 0.90) Jumbo 30yr: 7.33% (from 7.49%) | Points: 0.60 (from 0.70) FHA: 7.13% (from 7.19%) | Points: 1.15 (from 1.21) 5/1 ARM: 6.46% (from 6.54%) | Points: 1.11 (from 1.13)

Building Permits Hold Steady Despite Slide in Housing Starts
Fri, 23 Oct 2026 18:50:00 GMT
Residential construction failed to find even footing in September, with housing starts declining and single-family building permits pulling back, while total permits held nearly steady and completions edged higher. This week's Census Bureau data highlights weakness in new construction, particularly on the single-family side, while starts and completions were comparatively stable. Privately owned housing starts fell 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million , down 7.4% from September 2025. Single-family starts declined 4.6% to 859k , and multi-family came in at 349k . Building permits were more stable, slipping just 0.2% to an annual rate of 1.400 million , although they were 3.0% below the September 2025 pace. Single-family authorizations fell 4.0% to 845k , while multi-family permits rose to 503k . The contrast between total permits and single-family authorizations suggests that the overall pipeline for future construction was relatively steady, even as the single-family segment weakened. Multi-family permits accounted for a larger share of total authorizations in September, though monthly figures can fluctuate considerably in that segment. Housing completions bounced back from last month, and increased 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.192 million , still 14.0% below the September 2025 rate. Single-family completions slipped 2.4% to 840k , multi-family completions came in at 339k .

Builder Confidence Hits Lowest Level Since 2012
Fri, 23 Oct 2026 18:46:00 GMT
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped three points to 29 in October--its lowest level in 14 years. As per usual, higher mortgage rates, rising costs, and worsening labor and lot conditions were the driving factors.  All three component indices declined, with prospective buyer traffic suffering the steepest drop. HMI Component September October Change Current sales conditions 35 33 -2 Sales expectations 37 32 -5 Prospective buyer traffic 23 18 -5 "Buyer traffic has now fallen to its lowest level since April 2012, excluding the initial pandemic shock in April 2020.” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. Builders are also facing higher construction loan, material and diesel costs, along with construction delays tied to immigration enforcement activity. Builders have responded by continuing to slash prices. The share reporting price cuts climbed to 43% in October, the highest level during the 2020-2026 period. The average reduction remained at 6% for the seventh consecutive month. Sales incentives were reported by 65% of builders, marking the 19th straight month that at least 60% have offered them.

Existing Home Sales Treading Same Old Water
Fri, 16 Oct 2026 18:52:00 GMT
If you're busy, we can make this quick. Existing home sales dropped sharply from over 6m units per year starting in 2022 and had bottomed out around 4m units per year by the end of 2023. They've done essentially nothing exciting since then and the latest update is no exception. The end.  If you prefer to read an article-sized article, here you go: Existing-home sales edged higher in September with The National Association of REALTORS® reporting a 1.5% increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million . August and September mark the two slowest months for home sales this year, as higher borrowing costs continued to limit the pool of qualified buyers. “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home,” Yun said. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.86% in September , up from 6.67% in August and 6.35% a year earlier. Inventory continued to offer buyers more options than they had a year ago, although the latest increase was relatively modest. Total housing inventory reached 1.60 million units , up 1.9% from August and 4.6% year over year . Buyers may also have more room to negotiate as homes take longer to sell. The median time on market increased to 33 days , up from 31 days in August. Yun said the combination of higher inventory and longer selling times could require sellers to offer price reductions or other incentives to attract buyers.

Only a Modest Decline For Mortgage Apps. Next Week Should Improve
Fri, 16 Oct 2026 18:45:00 GMT
Mortgage applications continued to lose ground as mortgage rates held near their highest levels in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending October 9. That's an important date, because a substantial majority of a fairly sharp decline in interest rates occurred AFTER October 9. As such, next week's data is a great opportunity to see the impact of lower rates.  Purchase activity took another step back, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4% for the week and running 16% below year-ago levels . Refinances were nearly unchanged, slipping just 0.4%, but remained 56% lower than a year earlier. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.50% , its highest level since November 2023 and more than a percentage point above its level a year ago. MBA's Joel Kan notes, “As a result, borrowers continue to rely more on ARM loans to help lower their monthly payments." ARMs accounted for 10.5% of all applications , the highest share since October 2025. The refinance share also ticked higher, reaching 37.7% of total applications from 37.0% the previous week, with a 5% drop in FHA refinance applications being the main driver of the small overall decline. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.50% (from 7.49%) | Points: 0.83 (from 0.84) 15yr Fixed: 6.87% (from 6.71%) | Points: 0.90 (from 1.05) Jumbo 30yr: 7.49% (from 7.39%) | Points: 0.70 (from 0.52) FHA: 7.19% (from 7.14%) | Points: 1.21 (from 1.36) 5/1 ARM: 6.54% (from 6.43%) | Points: 1.13 (from 1.69)

Higher Rates Sapped Mortgage Demand, Surprising No One
Fri, 02 Oct 2026 20:09:00 GMT
Mortgage demand shocked no one by declining last week as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 6% drop in total mortgage application volume for the week ending September 25. Both sides of the market moved lower, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4% and refinance applications dropping 9% . MBA said purchase and refinance activity both reached their slowest weekly pace since 2025 . Refinances always get hit hardest by rate spikes with the index now 56% lower than a year earlier. Government refinance applications fell 13% from the prior week. "Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in almost three years, pushing borrowers to the sidelines," said Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. He noted that the 30-year fixed rate reached 7.30%, its highest level since November 2023. There was another sign that some borrowers are looking for alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. ARM loans accounted for 10.3% of all applications, the highest share since October 2025. Kan said ARM rates were roughly 80 basis points below fixed rates, although the average 5/1 ARM rate also moved higher in the latest survey. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.30% (from 7.12%) | Points: 0.75 (from 0.73) 15yr Fixed: 6.56% (from 6.43%) | Points: 1.02 (from 1.15) Jumbo 30yr: 7.27% (from 7.15%) | Points: 0.50 (from 0.53) FHA: 6.97% (from 6.78%) | Points: 1.18 (from 0.96) 5/1 ARM: 6.47% (from 6.10%) | Points: 1.20 (from 0.76)

Home Prices Keep Climbing, Just Not Everywhere
Fri, 02 Oct 2026 19:44:00 GMT
Home prices picked up a little more speed in July, as both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed stronger annual appreciation than in their previous readings. The gains remain relatively modest by historical standards, and while nominal prices are still moving higher nationally, the picture looks considerably less impressive after accounting for inflation. The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% from June to July, bringing the annual increase to 2.6% . While the national market is still technically appreciating, there's more and more variation between different metro areas with some holding steady or even contracting. Case-Shiller tells a similar story, though its national measure is running at a somewhat slower pace. The U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.9% year over year in July, up from 1.6% in June. The 10-City Composite increased 3.4% , while the 20-City Composite was up 2.5% . The annual price appreciation chart shows a nice little uptick, but the takeaway is tempered in inflation-adjusted terms. Both of the big U.S. inflation reports showed annual changes of 3.4% last month, and even higher in July (the month that lines up with these home price reports). Any way you slice it, that means home prices aren't keeping pace with broader inflation. Whether or not that's a bad thing is another story. Some would say it wouldn't be the end of the world for prices to merely hold steady and allow income growth to slowly chip away at affordability.