Builders Counting on Lower Rates to Break the Traffic Jam
Fri, 19 Sep 2025 17:49:00 GMT
Builder confidence levels continued kicking a sad little can down the same long and lonesome road. The September National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) held flat at 32, extending the streak to 17 consecutive months below the key 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. While the overall index isn't pretty, there was some positive movement in the component index that focuses on sales expectations over the next 6 months, which rose to its highest levels in 6 months. These expectations are responsible for keeping overall confidence from sinking to new long-term lows--largely weighed down by historically low buyer traffic. With affordability being a key concern, the recent drop in mortgage rates could help break that traffic jam, assuming it sticks. The rate outlook got a bit fuzzier in the 2nd half of the week as the average 30yr fixed rate ticked up somewhat sharply from the lowest levels in a year to the highest levels in 2 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Pricing pressure remains widespread. NAHB reported that 36% of builders cut home prices in September, with an average reduction of 5%. Meanwhile, 64% of builders offered sales incentives—still an elevated share by historical standards. Regionally, confidence was weakest in the West, where affordability challenges are most severe. The South tracked near the national average, while the Midwest and Northeast held relatively steadier, reflecting the persistent gap between high-cost and lower-cost housing markets.

Big Drop in Building Permits, But Construction Pace is Still Fairly Steady
Fri, 19 Sep 2025 17:30:00 GMT
The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total housing starts (the groundbreaking phase of construction) fell 2.3% to a 1.398 million annual rate, led by a 3.4% decline in single-family starts to 906k. Multifamily activity eased 1.5% to 464k but continues to trend higher over the past several months, signaling sustained demand for apartments and other multi-unit projects. The standout shift came on the permitting side. Total permits dropped 6.8% to a 1.264 million annual pace—one of the steepest monthly declines in years. Single-family permits slid 5.1% to 827k and multifamily permits fell 9.3% to 437k. Importantly, though, permits had been running well above starts for much of the year. This latest pullback brings the two measures into closer alignment, suggesting a more balanced pipeline. Note the broadly flat pace of housing starts.  This suggests a fairly steady pace of construction for now.

Biggest Jump in Mortgage Applications Since 2021
Fri, 19 Sep 2025 16:50:00 GMT
What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured in the weekly survey numbers from MBA and Freddie Mac.  The expectation was that refinance activity would be surging in this week's data.  That turns out to have been an understatement. For the first time in several years, we have to take our chart of MBA's refinance applications all the way back to 2022 in order to provide context for the levels achieved this week.  Until now, September 2024 set the high water mark. That's a whopping 58% increase in refi demand versus last week, and it's 70% higher than the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index rose only 3%, but that leaves it near the best levels since early 2023. Overall applications were up 29.7%, the 2nd biggest jump since the last week of 2022, and in outright terms, application activity rose by the highest amount since July 2021! There are already clouds on the horizon, unfortunately.  On the same day these numbers were released, rates began moving sharply higher in response to this week's Fed announcement (why?). The rate spike continued on Thursday in response to economic data.  All told, rates are easily back up to the highest levels since before the September 5th jobs report.  Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist noted "homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey."

Obvious Signs of Life in Mortgage Apps Thanks to Rate Rally
Wed, 10 Sep 2025 15:34:00 GMT
Mortgage applications jumped 9.2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. The results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. “Mortgage rates declined for the second consecutive week as Treasury yields moved lower on data indicating that the labor market is weakening. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.49 percent, down 20 basis points over the past two weeks to the lowest since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022, with both purchase and refinance applications moving higher. Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace. There was also a pickup in ARM applications, both in terms of level and share, as ARM rates were considerably lower than fixed rate loans, which typically benefits homebuyers.” The Refinance Index rose 12% from the previous week and is 34% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index increased 7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and is now 23% higher than last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications increased to 48.8%. ARM share rose to 9.2%. FHA share decreased to 18.5%, while VA share climbed to 15.3%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.49% (from 6.64%) | Points: 0.56 (from 0.59) 15yr Fixed: 5.70% (from 5.84%) | Points: 0.55 (from 0.84) Jumbo 30yr: 6.44% (from 6.58%) | Points: 0.48 (from 0.39) FHA: 6.27% (from 6.31%) | Points: 0.68 (from 0.74) 5/1 ARM: 5.77% (from 5.90%) | Points: 0.63 (from 0.34)

Refi Demand Improves While Purchase Applications Edge Lower
Wed, 03 Sep 2025 19:35:00 GMT
Mortgage applications decreased modestly last week, with overall volume slipping 1.2%. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 29, 2025. “Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed rate falling to its lowest level since April at 6.64 percent. However, that was not enough to spark more application activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance applications saw a small increase, driven by FHA and VA refinances, but conventional refinances declined. Purchase activity pulled back, after a four-week run of increases, as slower homebuying activity led to declines in applications across loan types.” The Refinance Index rose 1% from the previous week and is 20% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index decreased 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis but remains 17% above last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications increased to 46.9%. ARM share rose to 8.8%. FHA share moved up to 19.9%, while VA share climbed to 13.8%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.64% (from 6.69%) | Points: 0.59 (from 0.60) 15yr Fixed: 5.84% (from 6.03%) | Points: 0.84 (from 0.77) Jumbo 30yr: 6.58% (from 6.67%) | Points: 0.39 (from 0.44) FHA: 6.31% (from 6.35%) | Points: 0.74 (from 0.80) 5/1 ARM: 5.90% (from 5.94%) | Points: 0.34 (from 0.68)

Home Prices Still Growing, But at The Slowest Pace Since 2012
Wed, 27 Aug 2025 20:37:00 GMT
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The takeaway remains the same: prices are rising year-over-year, but at an increasingly slow rate. Case Shiller--the more volatile index--is at the lowest pace in more than 2 years while the broader FHFA index is the lowest since 2012 in year-over-year terms.   FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) June: −0.2%; May was revised to −0.1% from unchanged YoY: +2.9% from June 2024 to June 2025 All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.7% in the Mountain division to +6.7% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +1.9% in June, down from +2.3% in May MoM (non seasonally adjusted): +0.4% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.3% The 20-City Composite posted a −0.3% MoM decline (SA) and a +2.1% YoY gain. The 10-City Composite was slightly firmer at −0.1% MoM and +2.6% YoY. Seasonally Adjusted Comparison: Index MoM (SA) YoY FHFA HPI −0.2% +2.9% Case-Shiller −0.3% +1.9% Non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller readings still show the usual spring/summer uptick, but once adjusted for seasonality the underlying trend is negative. FHFA data also points to weakening, with its second consecutive month of declines.

New Home Market Remains Stuck in Neutral
Wed, 27 Aug 2025 20:19:00 GMT
The latest New Home Sales report showed little change in July, with sales holding very close to June’s pace. The seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate came in at 652,000. This marks a -0.6% dip from June’s revised 656,000, and leaves sales -8.2% lower than July 2024’s 710,000 level. For all practical purposes, the pace of sales continues to run sideways, reflecting the same stable range seen over the past 2+ years despite periodic swings. Regional Breakdown (Sales, July 2025) South: -3.5% MoM Midwest: -6.6% MoM Northeast: unchanged MoM West: +11.7% MoM Market Inventory & Pricing Homes for sale: 499,000 units (-0.6% from June; +7.3% YoY) Months’ supply: 9.2 months (flat MoM; +16.5% YoY) Median sales price: $403,800 (-0.8% MoM; -5.9% YoY) Average sales price: $487,300 (-3.6% MoM; -5.0% YoY) Big Picture Takeaway July’s new home sales data reinforces the recent pattern: demand is steady at best, but not accelerating. Inventory remains elevated, keeping months’ supply near multi-year highs. While prices have softened meaningfully versus last year (reflecting lower square footage more than actual price declines), elevated housing costs continue to limit the benefit to buyers.

Mixed Mortgage Demand, But Lower Rates Should Help Next Week's Refi Numbers
Wed, 27 Aug 2025 19:56:00 GMT
Mortgage application activity was little changed last week, with only a fractional decline in overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 0.5% decrease in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 22, 2025. “Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in over a month, up 2 percent, and the average loan size increased to its highest level in two months at $433,400.” The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remains 19% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index rose 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis and is running 25% ahead of last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications decreased to 45.3%. ARM share declined to 8.4%. FHA share held steady at 19.1%, while VA share slipped to 13.3%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.69% (from 6.68%) | Points: 0.60 (unchanged) 15yr Fixed: 6.03% (from 5.96%) | Points: 0.77 (up from 0.70) Jumbo 30yr: 6.67% (from 6.64%) | Points: 0.44 (down from 0.60) FHA: 6.35% (from 6.39%) | Points: 0.80 (up from 0.66) 5/1 ARM: 5.94% (from 6.01%) | Points: 0.68 (up from 0.63)

Existing Home Market Still Crawling Along The Bottom Despite Modest Bounce
Thu, 21 Aug 2025 14:53:00 GMT
After sliding back in June, existing-home sales picked up in July. The latest update, released August 21, shows a modest rebound. Sales rose 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million are now 0.8% higher than a year ago. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart puts things in the most accurate perspective for the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that slightly better affordability and stronger wage growth are giving sales a lift, with buyers also benefiting from more choices in the market. He added that many areas are seeing near-flat price growth, with some regions experiencing outright price declines. Even so, homeowners remain in a strong position, with a cumulative 49% increase in typical home values since mid-2019. Distressed sales remain at historic lows, and inventory has climbed to its highest level since May 2020, offering buyers their best negotiating position in years. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, July 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 500k +8.7% $509,300 +0.8% Midwest 940k -1.1% $333,800 +3.9% South 1.805m +2.2% $367,400 -0.6% West 720k +1.4% $620,700 -1.4%

Mortgage Applications Inconsequentially Lower vs Last Week
Wed, 20 Aug 2025 16:39:00 GMT
Mortgage application activity eased last week, but not in a statistically significant way.  One might be inclined to note a very slight uptick in mortgage rates, but it's just as fair to say that rates held steady near longer-term lows.  The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 1.4% decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 15, 2025. “Mortgage rates increased slightly last week, with the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.68 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. VA applications fell 16%, while FHA refinance applications increased as FHA rates remained comparatively competitive. The Refinance Index decreased 3% week-over-week but remains about 23% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index was essentially flat (+0.1% seasonally adjusted) and is running about 23% ahead of last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications slipped to 46.1%. ARM share decreased to 8.6%. FHA share rose to 19.1%, while VA share declined to 13.4%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.68% (from 6.67%) | Points: 0.60 (down from 0.64) 15yr Fixed: 5.96% (from 5.93%) | Points: 0.70 (up from 0.63) Jumbo 30yr: 6.64% (from 6.70%) | Points: 0.60 (up from 0.56) FHA: 6.39% (from 6.40%) | Points: 0.66 (down from 0.77) 5/1 ARM: 6.01% (from 5.80%) | Points: 0.63 (down from 0.67)